In the 1990s, natural catastrophes like hurricanes, floods, and fires affected more than two billion people and caused in excess of $608 billion in economic losses worldwide-a loss greater than during the previous four decades combined. But more and more of the devastation wrought by such natural disasters is “unnatural” in origin, caused by ecologically destructive practices and an increasing number of people living in harm’s way.

“By degrading forests, engineering rivers, filling in wetlands, and destabilizing the climate, we are unraveling the strands of a complex ecological safety net,” said Senior Researcher and author of Unnatural Disasters Janet Abramovitz. “We have altered so many natural systems so dramatically, their ability to protect us from disturbances is greatly diminished.”

One in three people-some 2 billion-now live within 100 kilometers of a coastline. Thirteen of the world’s 19 megacities (with over 10 million inhabitants) are in coastal zones. The projected effects of global warming, such as more extreme weather events and sea level rise, will only magnify potential losses.

Economic losses from “unnatural disasters” are greater in the developed world-the earthquake that rocked Kobe, Japan in 1995, for example, cost more than $100 billion, making it the most expensive natural disaster in history. Smaller losses often hit poor countries harder, where they represent a larger share of the national economy. The damage from 1998’s Hurricane Mitch in Central America was $8.5 billion-higher than the combined gross domestic product of Honduras and Nicaragua, the two nations hardest hit. Few of the losses in poor countries are insured. In the period 1985-99, the vast majority of insured losses-some 92 percent-were in industrial nations.

“So too is maintaining and restoring nature’s ecological safety net in all countries. Dunes, barrier islands, mangrove forests and coastal wetlands are natural ‘shock absorbers’ that protect against coastal storms. Forests, floodplains, and wetlands, are ‘sponges’ that absorb floodwaters. Nature provides these services for free, and we should take advantage of them rather than undermining them.”

More people worldwide are now displaced by natural disasters than by conflict. In the 1990s, natural catastrophes like hurricanes, floods, and fires affected more than two billion people and caused in excess of $608 billion in economic losses worldwide-a loss greater than during the previous four decades combined. But more and more of the devastation wrought by such natural disasters is “unnatural” in origin, caused by ecologically destructive practices and an increasing number of people living in harm’s way, finds a new study by the Worldwatch Institute, a Washington D.C.-based environmental research organization.

“By degrading forests, engineering rivers, filling in wetlands, and destabilizing the climate, we are unraveling the strands of a complex ecological safety net,” said Senior Researcher and author of Unnatural Disasters Janet Abramovitz. “We have altered so many natural systems so dramatically, their ability to protect us from disturbances is greatly diminished.”

One in three people-some 2 billion-now live within 100 kilometers of a coastline. Thirteen of the world’s 19 megacities (with over 10 million inhabitants) are in coastal zones. The projected effects of global warming, such as more extreme weather events and sea level rise, will only magnify potential losses.Although “unnatural disasters” occur everywhere, their impact falls disproportionately on poor people as they are more likely to be living in vulnerable areas and they have fewer resources to prepare for or recover from disasters

Economic losses from “unnatural disasters” are greater in the developed world-the earthquake that rocked Kobe, Japan in 1995, for example, cost more than $100 billion, making it the most expensive natural disaster in history. Smaller losses often hit poor countries harder, where they represent a larger share of the national economy. The damage from 1998’s Hurricane Mitch in Central America was $8.5 billion-higher than the combined gross domestic product of Honduras and Nicaragua, the two nations hardest hit. Few of the losses in poor countries are insured. In the period 1985-99, the vast majority of insured losses-some 92 percent-were in industrial nations.

“Expanding the financial safety net for poor countries is essential,” said Abramovitz. “So too is maintaining and restoring nature’s ecological safety net in all countries. Dunes, barrier islands, mangrove forests and coastal wetlands are natural ‘shock absorbers’ that protect against coastal storms. Forests, floodplains, and wetlands, are ‘sponges’ that absorb floodwaters. Nature provides these services for free, and we should take advantage of them rather than undermining them.”

 

“Increasingly, people are choosing unsafe areas to live and there is mass congregation into increasingly concentrated areas… as people look for access to water and land to grow food,” says Seaward. As scientists predict that climate change will cause a more unstable and volatile weather, it seems essential that governments across the world learn the lessons of Pakistan. One of the problems is that a rising population places demands on the landscape in terms of food production, and in Pakistan agricultural irrigation projects altered the natural flow of water — with disastrous consequences.

“Large land areas are [being] covered with cement, so this means the flow of water becomes very strong,” Guha-Sapir said. “The runoff from the water can’t get absorbed by the soil anymore, so it keeps collecting and rushing down, getting heavier and faster, and then you have much bigger floods.” “As you put more and more people in harms way, you make a disaster out of something that before was just a natural event,” said Klaus Jacob, a senior research scientists at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

It is said that about 90 percent of all earthquakes occur along faults at the perimeter of plates. Although rare, sometimes very destructive quakes also occur within the plates. According to estimates, the deadliest quake in recorded history was one that struck three provinces in China in the year 1556. It may have claimed as many as 830,000 lives!

Quakes can also have lethal aftereffects. For example, on November 1, 1755, a quake flattened the city of Lisbon, Portugal, which had a population of 275,000. But that was not the end of the horror. The quake caused fires and also tsunamis estimated to be up to 50 feet [15 m] high, which raced in from the nearby Atlantic Ocean. All told, the city’s death toll exceeded 60,000.

The newly revised estimates show a 72 percent chance that a magnitude-6.7 or larger quake — almost the size of the 1989 Loma Prieta temblor — will strike the Bay Area before the year 2044. The odds of a much larger magnitude-7 quake are 50-50. Of the region’s three major faults, the Hayward Fault still seems the most primed to break. The highest risk of an earthquake in the Bay Area is along a stretch of that fault between Hayward and Milpitas, where the risk of a magnitude-6.7 or greater rupture is 22.3 percent over the next three decades. We are fortunate that seismic activity in California has been relatively low over the past century,” said Tom Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center and a co-author of the study. “But we know that tectonic forces are continually tightening the springs.”

The study also says the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has gone up from about 4.7 percent to about 7 percent.

“Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast,” a FEMA official told Kathryn Schulz of the New Yorker. “When the next full-margin rupture happens, that region will suffer the worst natural disaster in the history of North America.”, Schulz wrote about an anticipated future mega-quake. “The worst natural disaster in the history of America is coming […] if I lived right now in the Pacific Northwest I would be considering moving — seriously,” Fox newscaster Shepard Smith warned his audience before going on to explain how a “colossal earthquake and […] tsunami” will likely strike the Pacific Northwest in the not too distant future. “They [scientists] are all in agreement, it is absolutely coming,” said Smith, “a wall of water […] up to a hundred feet high and up to seven-hundred feet across.

Japan (2011): 9.0, U.S. predicted 9.2, continent sits on North American plate, Washington State to Norcal. Juan De Fuca plate trying to slide under north america, but it’s stuck. Plate will slam down, a wall of water will go to Japan, other will reach west coast in 15 minutes. 700 miles long, 100 feet high. Everything west of Interstate 5 could be gone, millions of people could die. Cascadia fault packs energy 30x the San Andreas fault, not just CA. 4 minute earthquake, 15 minutes until tsunami reaches coast. We could be overdue, seismic activity every 240 years, none for 315 years.

The White House has allocated $5 million in federal funding for the Earthquake Early Warning system, which is being developed by Caltech, UC Berkeley and the University of Washington in conjunction with the USGS. The system can provide the public with up to a minute or more of warning before shaking hits. Test users at UC Berkley received 10 seconds of warning before the Napa quake. A few extra seconds can be critical, allowing doctors to pause surgeries, utilities to shut off the flow of natural gas, or train operators to brake before the shaking starts. A smartphone app to communicate the warnings is also in the works.